The Pharma Bloodbath Part II: 2026 Won’t Kill You – But the Patent Cliff, AI, and Your Outdated CV Might Finish the Job

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Dear #MoreThanCareer community,

In January, I published an article about the pharma bloodbath of 2025. It became my most-read piece ever. Thousands of comments, hundreds of DMs, and more than a few people telling me I’d ruined their Sunday brunch. Bitte sehr. (You’re welcome.)

The response told me something important: people in our industry are not just worried. They’re paying attention. And they want someone to cut through the noise with actual data, honest analysis, and – occasionally – a joke dark enough to make their HR department file a complaint.

So here it is: Part II. The sequel nobody asked for but everybody needs. Like Terminator 2, except the machines replacing humans are running clinical trial algorithms, and Arnold Schwarzenegger is a restructuring consultant from McKinsey.

Let’s look at where we actually stand, what the data says about 2026, and – more importantly – what you can do about it. Because Jammern hilft nicht (complaining doesn’t help), as my grandmother used to say, usually while handing me a Schnapps.

WHERE WE LEFT OFF: A QUICK RECAP FOR THOSE WHO MISSED THE CARNAGE

In Part I, I laid out the brutal arithmetic of 2025: approximately 42,700 employees affected by layoffs globally, a 47% year-over-year increase. [1] Layoff rounds rose 16% year over year, [2] with at least 128 layoff rounds in H1 alone – a 32% jump from 2024. [3] The giants fell hardest: Novo Nordisk cutting 9,000, Merck planning 6,000, Bayer eliminating over 12,000 since 2023. [4]

The drivers were clear: post-COVID overcorrection, the patent cliff moving from theory to reality, GLP-1 competition, venture capital drought, regulatory chaos, and M&A consolidation. Six horsemen of the pharmaceutical apocalypse, riding in formation. Ordnung muss sein (there must be order) – even in catastrophe, the Germans insist on structure.

THE 2026 REALITY CHECK: WHAT THE DATA ACTUALLY SAYS

Here’s the good news, such as it is: January 2026 saw a meaningful year-over-year decline in layoffs. Eleven biopharma companies let go of approximately 463 employees in January 2026, compared to over 1,300 in January 2025 – and even higher numbers in January 2024. [5] That’s not zero. But it’s a clear deceleration. Think of it as the industry switching from projectile vomiting to a manageable nausea. Progress.

EY Americas life sciences leader Arda Ural predicts “a more predictable year in 2026 across all fronts,” with total layoff percentages likely staying below 5%. [6] He expects 2026 job losses to derive from more traditional factors – pipeline failures, strategic scale adjustments, offshoring – rather than the systemic shock of 2024-2025. In other words: people will still lose their jobs, but at least they’ll lose them for normal reasons. How comforting.

The Deloitte 2026 Life Sciences Outlook paints a cautiously optimistic picture: 75% of surveyed executives rated their business outlook for 2026 as positive. [7] In Europe and Asia, that figure reaches 90%. The Americans, predictably, are more nervous at 56% – understandable when your regulatory agency is simultaneously laying off scientists and deploying AI that hallucinates during drug approvals. [8] When the FDA’s chatbot starts inventing molecules, you know we’re living in interesting times.

BioSpace’s 2026 Employment Outlook tells a more nuanced story from the hiring side: 64% of surveyed biopharma organisations were actively recruiting at the end of 2025, up from 59% the year before. And 41% predicted their number of open roles would increase in 2026. [9] That’s progress. Not a party. But definitely not a funeral either. More of a cautious Kaffeekränzchen (coffee circle) where everyone is smiling but nobody’s quite sure who’s paying the bill.

THE DACH PERSPECTIVE: A MIXED BAG WITH GERMAN CHARACTERISTICS

Let’s zoom into what matters most for this audience: Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. Because what happens in San Francisco stays in San Francisco, but what happens in Leverkusen, Basel, and Vienna affects your Arbeitsvertrag (employment contract) directly.

Germany

Full disclosure before I start this section: I am a Bayer employee. I am #TeamBayer, and I am biased. But I also have a rule: Wenn Du nichts Gutes sagen kannst, dann sag nichts. (If you can’t say anything good, say nothing.) I’m not saying nothing. Draw your own conclusions.

Bayer’s restructuring under CEO Bill Anderson has reduced headcount by over 12,000 since mid-2023, bringing the global workforce from 102,048 to roughly 89,500. [10] Those are not abstract numbers. They represent real people, real careers, real families. Nobody should pretend otherwise, and I certainly won’t. The no-compulsory-redundancy agreement for Germany runs until 31 December 2026, [11] and what happens after that date is a legitimate concern for every colleague.

But here is what I want to say about the restructuring itself, because I think it deserves honest acknowledgement: Bayer’s Dynamic Shared Ownership (DSO) model is, in my experience, genuinely different from every corporate restructuring I’ve witnessed in sixteen years. And I’ve witnessed a few. DSO is not just another euphemism for “we’re cutting middle management and calling it innovation.” It is a fundamental rethinking of how decisions get made. Hierarchies were flattened. Bureaucratic approval chains that used to require six signatures and a minor miracle were simplified. Small, self-managed teams were empowered to make decisions that previously needed to travel up five levels of management and back down again – a journey that typically took longer than the actual work it was meant to approve.

As an employee, I’ll say this plainly: DSO has given me more room for Selbstwirksamkeit (self-efficacy) – the feeling that what I do actually matters and that I can shape outcomes rather than just execute instructions. That’s rare in a company of this size. It’s the first restructuring I’ve been part of that felt genuinely revolutionary in its management philosophy, not just in its headcount reduction. Whether you agree with the execution or the pace or the human cost is a separate and valid conversation. But the direction? I believe it’s the right one.

On the business side, Bayer Pharma is showing encouraging signs: Nubeqa and Kerendia are driving growth, and the pipeline is advancing. The Xarelto patent erosion will hit harder in 2026, and the Monsanto litigation shadow hasn’t fully lifted. [13] There are real headwinds. But there is also real momentum. And DSO, for all its disruption, has created an organisation that’s faster, leaner, and – in my daily experience – more creative than the one it replaced. Ende der Durchsage. (End of announcement.) Back to being objective.

Switzerland

Novartis announced 550 job cuts at its Stein manufacturing plant by end of 2027, while simultaneously investing $80 million in siRNA manufacturing at Schweizerhalle, creating roughly 80 new roles. [14] Classic pharma mathematics: subtract 550, add 80, call it “strategic optimisation.” If your bank did that with your savings account, you’d call the police. When a Fortune 500 does it, they call it “value creation.”

Critically, Novartis is also investing $23 billion over five years to expand US manufacturing and R&D [15] – a not-so-subtle signal about where the growth centre of gravity is shifting. Twenty-three billion dollars heading westward across the Atlantic while Swiss tablet production moves to North Carolina. For Swiss-based professionals, the message is as subtle as a Swiss railway announcement: Nächster Halt: Amerika. Bitte aussteigen. (Next stop: America. Please disembark.)

Roche, by contrast, has been relatively stable – no major announced headcount reductions – though its Genentech subsidiary in California has shed over 800 employees since April 2024. [16] Pfizer cut over 200 employees in Switzerland in late 2025, shrinking its Swiss headcount from 300 to around 70. [17] From 300 to 70. That’s not downsizing. That’s a company Christmas party that suddenly fits into a fondue restaurant.

Austria

Austria’s pharma sector remains comparatively stable but not immune. Boehringer Ingelheim, Takeda’s Vienna hub, and Sandoz (now independent from Novartis) continue to be significant employers. The generics and biosimilars space – Sandoz’s domain – actually benefits from the patent cliff. Every blockbuster’s patent expiry is a biosimilar company’s Christmas morning. One industry’s Trauerspiel (tragedy) is another’s Goldgrube (goldmine).

A GLANCE BEYOND DACH: HOW THE REST OF THE WORLD IS COPING (SPOILER: MOSTLY BADLY)

United States: The epicentre of chaos, as usual. FDA layoffs, NIH budget cuts, and the proposed elimination of 10,000 HHS employees create an environment where not even the regulators’ jobs are safe. [18] The irony of the drug safety agency being unable to protect its own employees’ job security is apparently lost on everyone in Washington.

However – and this is where America does that maddening American thing – manufacturing investments are simultaneously booming: J&J announced 500 new jobs in North Carolina, Eli Lilly is building facilities in Pennsylvania, and Genentech is expanding in Holly Springs. [19] The US is cutting and hiring in the same breath. It’s the labour market equivalent of eating a salad while standing inside a McDonald’s. Technically making progress. Optically confusing.

Asia-Pacific: The counternarrative that nobody in DACH wants to hear. The APAC biopharmaceutical CRO market generated $13.7 billion in 2024 and is forecast to nearly double by 2033. [20] Jiangsu Hengrui – a company most European pharma professionals couldn’t spell six years ago – overtook AstraZeneca as the world’s top clinical trial sponsor in 2024. [21] Chinese biotech licensing deals reached $18.3 billion in H1 2025 alone. For DACH professionals with international ambitions: Asia is not the future. It’s been the present for a while. We were just too busy with our Betriebsversammlungen (company assemblies) to notice.

THE $230 BILLION ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM: THE PATENT CLIFF

If 2025 was about overcorrection and restructuring, 2026-2030 will be defined by the largest patent cliff in pharmaceutical history. Approximately $230 billion in annual blockbuster drug sales face loss of exclusivity by end of the decade. [22] Between 2025 and 2033, pharma companies could lose over $400 billion in branded drug revenue. [23] Four hundred billion. To put that in perspective, that’s roughly the GDP of Austria. Twice. The entire Austrian economy, evaporating from pharma balance sheets. Mahlzeit. (Enjoy your meal. – Said with maximum Viennese sarcasm.)

The 2026 casualties include Merck’s Januvia/Janumet franchise ($3.7 billion combined), Pfizer’s Xeljanz ($1.6 billion), and the beginning of Prevnar’s erosion. [24] Looking ahead: Keytruda ($29 billion) faces its cliff in 2028. Eliquis ($13 billion) expires between 2027-2029. [25] These aren’t drugs falling off a cliff. They’re an entire mountain range collapsing into the sea. And the companies that built their quarterly results on these products are standing at the edge, looking down, wondering if the parachute marked “M&A Strategy” will actually open.

For DACH, this matters directly. Merck KGaA (Darmstadt), Novartis (Basel), Roche (Basel), and Bayer (Leverkusen) all face patent pressures on key products. Novartis alone confronts expirations for Jakafi (2026), Cosentyx (2029), and Entresto. [26]

But – and this is where I refuse to be yet another doom merchant – patent cliffs also create opportunities. Every expiring blockbuster spawns a biosimilar market. Every revenue gap forces M&A activity. Goldman Sachs projects 2026 could be a record-breaking year for M&A, predicting deal flow of approximately $3.9 trillion across industries. [27] In pharma, aggregate deal value in the first three quarters of 2025 ($91.9 billion) already exceeded the total for all of 2024 ($61.7 billion). [28]

Where there is M&A, there are integration teams. Where there are integration teams, there are jobs. It’s the circle of life, corporate edition. Hakuna Matata, with restructuring provisions and a mandatory consultation period with the Betriebsrat (works council).

THE AI FACTOR: YOUR JOB IS (PROBABLY) SAFE – BUT YOUR EXCUSES AREN’T

Let’s address the second elephant: artificial intelligence. The one that every conference speaker mentions while adjusting their AirPods and trying to look visionary. According to the Deloitte survey, 41% of life sciences executives identified generative AI as an influential trend for 2026, with an additional 30% citing agentic AI. [29] McKinsey estimates that 75-85% of pharma workflows contain tasks that could be enhanced by agentic AI, potentially freeing 25-40% of organisational capacity. [30]

Before you panic and start learning Python at 11pm on a Tuesday – or, worse, before you update your LinkedIn headline to “AI-Powered Regulatory Affairs Thought Leader” – consider the reality check from EY: “We haven’t seen AI leading to mass layoffs at this point, because companies are still trying to figure it out. AI still needs a major level of human supervision for its confabulations.” [31] Only 9% of executives reported seeing a return on their AI investments so far. Nine percent. My success rate at finding matching socks in the morning is higher than that.

The FDA’s own AI platform reportedly suffers from hallucinations that make the drug approval process more difficult, not less. [32] Let that sink in: the world’s most important pharmaceutical regulator deployed an AI that invents things. In an industry where inventing things without clinical evidence is typically called “fraud.” Man kann sich nicht ausdenken, was man sich nicht ausdenken kann. (You can’t make up what you can’t make up.)

What AI is doing, however, is changing which skills matter. The professionals who will thrive are those who can bridge science and technology – the “translator” profiles that combine domain knowledge with data fluency. [33] If you’re a clinical operations manager who can also speak to data architecture, you’re not being replaced. You’re being headhunted. If you’re a clinical operations manager whose primary digital skill is colour-coding Excel spreadsheets... well. We should talk.

THREE SCENARIOS FOR DACH PHARMA IN 2026: BEST CASE, BASE CASE, WORST CASE

Based on all available data, expert forecasts, and sixteen years of watching this industry cycle through euphoria and despair with the regularity of a Swiss train schedule, here is my assessment. I’ve built a table because I’m German and we don’t trust analysis that doesn’t come in some kind of tabular form:

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

BEST CASE (Probability: ~20%) DACH Layoffs → Modest decline vs 2025. Net positive hiring in data science, AI, manufacturing. Key Drivers → Rate cuts stimulate biotech funding. M&A creates integration roles. AI investment drives new hires. Who Benefits → Data/AI talent, clinical ops, biosimilar specialists, regulatory affairs. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

BASE CASE (Probability: ~55%) DACH Layoffs → Flat to slight decline. Continued restructuring at major players, offset by selective hiring. Key Drivers → Patent cliff forces cost discipline. AI automates some roles. Hiring remains selective. Who Benefits → Adaptable professionals with hybrid skill sets. Those willing to relocate or change sectors. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

WORST CASE (Probability: ~25%) DACH Layoffs → Significant increase driven by tariff escalation, M&A consolidation, regulatory disruption. Key Drivers → US tariffs on pharma imports. MFN pricing collapses European margins. VC funding frozen. Who Benefits → Almost nobody. Consulting firms and outplacement agencies. As always. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Who Benefits

Data/AI talent, clinical ops, biosimilar specialists, regulatory affairs.

Adaptable professionals with hybrid skill sets. Those willing to relocate or change sectors.

Almost nobody. Consulting firms and outplacement agencies. As always.

My base case assessment: 2026 will be better than 2025, but not dramatically so. The restructuring wave is decelerating, not stopping. Think of it less as Entwarnung (all clear) and more as the patient being moved from intensive care to the regular ward. Still hospitalised. But no longer on the ventilator. Kleine Schritte. (Baby steps.)

The wildcard is US trade policy. Tariffs on pharmaceutical imports and most-favoured-nation pricing proposals could fundamentally alter the economics of European pharma manufacturing. If implemented aggressively, my worst-case scenario moves from 25% probability to significantly higher. Vorsicht ist die Mutter der Porzellankiste (caution is the mother of the china cabinet), as we say in German. Meaning: be careful with fragile things. Like your career. And the entire European pharmaceutical supply chain.

THE FIVE THINGS THAT WILL ACTUALLY MATTER IN 2026 (UPDATED, BECAUSE THE OLD EDITION WAS APPARENTLY TOO OPTIMISTIC)

In Part I, I gave five pieces of advice. They’re still valid. But the landscape has shifted enough to warrant an update. Consider this the 2.0 version – now with added existential urgency and fewer metaphors about trees. (Almost. I like trees.)

1. Become the Translator – Bridge Science and Digital

The most in-demand profiles for 2026 are hybrid professionals who combine deep life sciences domain knowledge with data and digital fluency. [34] Clinical data scientists, bioprocess engineers with automation expertise, regulatory affairs professionals who understand AI submissions, pharmacovigilance specialists with analytics capabilities. These roles sit at the intersection of science, regulation, and technology – and they are among the hardest to fill. Which means: if you can credibly occupy that intersection, you are not a candidate. You are a Mangel (shortage). And shortages get paid accordingly.

Practical step: take one course in data analytics, Python, or AI fundamentals this quarter. Not to become a data scientist – to become a scientist who understands data science. That distinction is worth an additional 15-20% in market value, conservatively. The course costs less than what most LinkedIn gurus charge for a motivational PDF with clip art.

For juniors and career starters: This is your unfair advantage. You grew up digital. The 55-year-old VP of Clinical Operations has institutional knowledge you lack, but you have instinctive digital fluency they’ll never fully develop. Combine both by learning from them while bringing your technical capabilities. Think of it as an exchange programme: you teach them how dashboards work, they teach you how clinical development actually functions. Everyone wins. Except the ATS system that rejected your CV because you didn’t have 10 years of experience at age 24. That system remains terrible.

2. Think in Sectors, Not Companies

The BioSpace data shows that larger companies (500+ employees) are hiring at much higher rates than smaller ones. [35] But the real insight is sectoral: biosimilars are growing as blockbusters lose exclusivity. CROs continue to need clinical talent regardless of market conditions – because trials, like taxes and bad LinkedIn content, never stop. Medical communications, health tech, regulatory consultancies, and CDMO/CMO organisations are all experiencing demand that doesn’t track Big Pharma’s restructuring cycles.

If you’ve spent your career in one company or one narrow function, 2026 is the year to widen your peripheral vision. The pharmaceutical ecosystem is much larger than the ten companies that dominate the headlines. It’s like only ever eating at one restaurant and then complaining there’s nothing good on the menu. Schauen Sie mal über den Tellerrand. (Look beyond the edge of your plate.)

For senior leaders and executives: Consider advisory and board roles. The M&A wave expected in 2026-2027 will create enormous demand for experienced pharma executives who can guide integration, manage regulatory transitions, and bring institutional credibility. Your Rolodex (or, fine, your LinkedIn network) is an asset. And unlike your company’s stock price, it doesn’t depreciate when someone in Washington tweets about tariffs.

3. Invest in Your Network Like It’s a Pension Fund

I said this in Part I, and the response confirmed it’s the advice people most intellectually agree with and least actually follow. Networking is the Broccoli of career management: everyone knows it’s good for you, nobody wants to do it, and the people who do it consistently live longer (professionally speaking). Meanwhile, people who don’t network are the same ones who, post-layoff, send 200 connection requests in a single afternoon with the message: “Hi, I came across your profile and was impressed by your journey.” We both know you sent that to everyone whose last name starts with the same letter, Klaus.

The BioSpace jobs data shows 4.2 applications per posting in January 2026, up from 3.6 a year ago. [36] Competition is intensifying. In that environment, referrals don’t just help – they’re increasingly the difference between getting seen and getting lost in the ATS black hole. And the ATS black hole, for the uninitiated, is where perfectly qualified CVs go to die alongside your application for that dream role you spent four hours tailoring. Ruhe in Frieden. (Rest in peace.)

For international candidates in DACH: Your network matters exponentially more. German employers value stability, language investment, and cultural adaptability. [37] A referral from someone inside the company signals all three. Build relationships with people who can vouch for your Zuverlässigkeit (reliability) – still the most valued professional trait in German corporate culture. Germans may not hug at work, but they will hire someone they trust. And trust, here, is built in years, not LinkedIn messages.

For the 50+ demographic: Your network is likely your strongest asset. You’ve had decades to build relationships that no 28-year-old with a TikTok about career hacks can replicate. The executives making hiring decisions are your former colleagues, your tennis partners, your fellow sufferers at industry conferences in Düsseldorf. Use that proximity. And stop underselling yourself – companies navigating patent cliffs and restructuring need institutional knowledge and Gelassenheit (composure) that only comes with experience. You’re not “adapting to new technologies.” You’re the person who remembers what happened last time someone reorganised the entire company, and you know where the bodies are buried. Figuratively, of course. Position yourself as the steady hand. The industry needs adults in the room.

4. Make Your Expertise Visible – Without Becoming a LinkedIn Influencer (Please)

The 2026 hiring market is more methodical and slower than the frenetic 2021-2022 period. [38] Hiring managers have more candidates and take longer to decide. When there are too many choices, companies freeze like a deer in headlights – or like a German tourist at a restaurant in Spain when the menu isn’t in German. In that environment, a strong professional brand does the selling before you ever enter the room.

This does not mean becoming a LinkedIn content creator. I beg you. We have enough people posting sunrise photos with captions about “the grind” and hashtags like #MondayMotivation #Hustle #Blessed #Pharma #ThoughtLeader #GratefulForThisJourney #InnovationMindset #DisruptOrBeDisrupted. If I see one more post that begins with “I was rejected 47 times before I landed my dream role and here’s what I learned” followed by ten bullet points that could be summarised as “try harder,” I will personally revoke someone’s internet privileges.

What does work: have a LinkedIn profile that clearly communicates what you know, what problems you solve, and what value you bring. Write one thoughtful comment per week on an industry discussion. Share one article with your own analysis attached. Not platitudes. Substance. For every one person creating content on LinkedIn, there are hundreds who engage with it. Meaningful engagement is vastly underrated and requires a fraction of the effort. Start there. Your future employer is watching. Silently. Like a German neighbour.

5. Prepare for All Three Scenarios – Not Just the One You Hope For

Most career advice assumes one future. I’ve given you three scenarios above. The strategically intelligent move is to prepare for all of them, because the universe has a well-documented habit of ignoring your preferences. Der Mensch denkt, Gott lenkt. (Man proposes, God disposes.) And in pharma, replace “God” with “a trade policy decision made at 6am on Twitter.”

In the best case, you want to be positioned for the new roles (AI, data, biosimilars, M&A integration). In the base case, you need a current CV, an active network, and a clear value proposition. In the worst case, you need financial reserves, transferable skills, and the psychological resilience to navigate a prolonged search without resorting to posting motivational quotes about doors and windows.

The common thread across all three: preparation beats reaction. Every single time.

Update your CV today. Not tomorrow. Not when the restructuring announcement hits. Not three glasses of Riesling deep at 11pm, wondering if “survived three restructurings without developing a drinking problem” counts as a transferable skill. (It doesn’t. I’ve checked. Again.)

Document your achievements with numbers. “Managed regulatory submissions” tells me nothing. “Led 14 Type II Variation submissions across DACH with zero deficiency letters and average approval time of 87 days” tells me everything. Be specific or be ignored. This was true in Part I and it’s even more true now, because the competition per role has increased by 17% in twelve months. [36]

A FINAL WORD: CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM IS NOT NAIVETY. AND DOOM IS NOT INSIGHT.

I am, by professional disposition and probably by personality defect, a realist. I don’t believe in motivational platitudes, and I think anyone who tells you the pharma job market is “just fine” either isn’t paying attention or is selling you a course for €2,997 (but ONLY if you sign up in the next 24 HOURS because this EXCLUSIVE offer is LIMITED – sound familiar from Part I?).

But I also don’t believe in doom narratives, and I’m tired of the LinkedIn cottage industry that profits from your anxiety. “The pharmaceutical industry is COLLAPSING and here’s why you should BUY MY WEBINAR.” No. Stop. The data shows a deceleration in layoffs. It shows increased hiring intent. It shows that 90% of European life sciences executives are cautiously positive about 2026. [39] It shows an industry that, yes, is restructuring painfully, but is also investing in AI, advanced therapies, and manufacturing capacity. The building is being renovated, not demolished. There’s a difference. Even if the noise and dust feel similar.

Cell and gene therapy investment reached $15.2 billion in 2025, a 30% increase from 2023. [40] Clinical trial activity continues to expand globally. Personalised medicine is moving from conference buzzword to operational reality. The industry that employs us is not dying. It’s metamorphosing. And metamorphosis, as any biologist will tell you, is messy – but it produces something with wings. Though I’d settle for something with a valid employment contract and a half-decent Betriebsrente (company pension).

Wer kämpft, kann verlieren. Wer nicht kämpft, hat schon verloren. (Those who fight may lose. Those who don’t fight have already lost.) – Bertolt Brecht, who admittedly knew nothing about pharmaceutical talent acquisition but understood human resilience rather well. He also lived in Berlin, which qualifies him as an honorary pharma professional given the amount of restructuring this city has endured.

If you’re secure: prepare anyway. If you’re worried: act now. If you’ve been affected: reach out. Write me in the comments or DM me. I don’t have a €2,997 course to sell you. I have sixteen years of experience, an honest assessment, and a stubborn belief that competent people find their way through – even when the way involves filing for Arbeitslosengeld (unemployment benefit) and explaining to your mother-in-law why you’re suddenly available for Tuesday lunch.

We’re still navigating the same choppy waters. Part II hasn’t changed that. But at least now we have better charts. And dark humour. Which, as every German knows, is like food: nicht jeder hat es. (not everyone has it.)

Prost! 🍺

YOUR TURN:

1. What’s your scenario for 2026 – best case, base case, or worst case? And what are you doing to prepare? (Answers involving “manifesting” will be politely ignored.)

2. Has AI already changed your day-to-day work in pharma? Or is it still mostly PowerPoint with extra steps and a fancier logo?

3. For those who’ve survived a restructuring: what’s the one piece of advice you’d give someone facing it for the first time? (Besides “update your CV before the third Riesling.”)

4. International professionals in DACH: what’s the biggest challenge nobody talks about when building a pharma career in Germany, Switzerland, or Austria? I genuinely want to hear this one.

5. Did a LinkedIn guru promise to transform your career for three easy payments of €999? How did that work out? Be honest. We’re among friends.

6. What topic should Part III cover? (Yes, I’m already planning. Vorsprung durch Planung. Audi should hire me.)

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SOURCES

[1] BioSpace Hiring Outlook, Feb 2026. ~42,700 employees affected by layoffs in 2025. https://www.biospace.com/job-trends/hiring-outlook-january-brings-year-over-year-layoff-decline

[2] PharmaVoice, Jan 2026. Biopharma layoffs rose 16% YoY in 2025. https://www.pharmavoice.com/news/layoffs-biopharma-2026-drug-pharma/810386/

[3] Fierce Biotech Layoff Tracker 2025. 128+ layoff rounds in H1 2025. https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/fierce-biotech-layoff-tracker-2025

[4] Xtalks, Pharma & Biotech Layoffs 2025. Bayer, Novo Nordisk, Merck figures. https://xtalks.com/pharma-and-biotech-layoffs-2025-4110/

[5] BioSpace, Feb 2026. Jan 2026: 463 affected vs 1,302 in Jan 2025. https://www.biospace.com/job-trends/hiring-outlook-january-brings-year-over-year-layoff-decline

[6] PharmaVoice, Jan 2026. EY’s Ural: more predictable 2026, layoffs <5%. https://www.pharmavoice.com/news/layoffs-biopharma-2026-drug-pharma/810386/

[7] Deloitte 2026 Life Sciences Outlook. 75% of execs rated outlook positive. https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/health-care/life-sciences-and-health-care-industry-outlooks/2026-life-sciences-executive-outlook.html

[8] PharmExec, Feb 2026. FDA AI hallucination issues. https://www.pharmexec.com/view/everything-know-layoffs-2025

[9] BioSpace 2026 Employment Outlook. 64% actively recruiting; 41% expect increases. https://www.biospace.com/job-trends/hiring-plans-show-promise-for-biopharma-job-seekers-biospace-report

[10] Fierce Pharma, Aug 2025. Bayer: 102,048 to 89,556. https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/bayers-layoff-count-now-12000-plus-its-fortunes-begin-turn

[11] Bayer AG, Jan 2024. No compulsory redundancies until end of 2026. https://www.bayer.com/media/en-us/bayer-aims-to-sustainably-improve-performance-with-new-organization/

[12] BioPharma Dive, May 2024. Bayer targeting €2B savings by 2026. https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/bayer-layoffs-1500-bureaucracy-restructuring-bill-anderson/716011/

[13] Fierce Pharma, Aug 2025. Xarelto erosion more acute in 2026. https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/bayers-layoff-count-now-12000-plus-its-fortunes-begin-turn

[14] Fierce Pharma, Nov 2025. Novartis: 550 cuts Stein, 80 new Schweizerhalle. https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/novartis-lays-out-plan-cut-550-jobs-plant-switzerland-end-2027

[15] Novartis, Apr 2025. $23B US investment over five years. https://www.novartis.com/us-en/news/media-releases/novartis-plans-expand-its-us-based-manufacturing-and-rd-footprint-total-investment-23b-over-next-5-years

[16] BioSpace Layoff Tracker 2026. Genentech 800+ since Apr 2024. https://www.biospace.com/biospace-layoff-tracker

[17] BioSpace Layoff Tracker 2025. Pfizer Switzerland: 300 to ~70. https://www.biospace.com/biospace-layoff-tracker

[18] PharmExec, Feb 2026. 10,000 HHS employees proposed elimination. https://www.pharmexec.com/view/everything-know-layoffs-2025

[19] BioSpace, Feb 2026. J&J 500 NC, Lilly PA, Genentech Holly Springs. https://www.biospace.com/job-trends/hiring-outlook-january-brings-year-over-year-layoff-decline

[20] EPM Scientific, 2026. APAC CRO market $13.7B, ~double by 2033. https://www.epmscientific.com/en-us/industry-insights/career-advice/life-sciences-careers-2026-top-hiring-trends

[21] PharmaVoice, Jan 2026. Hengrui overtook AZ as top trial sponsor. https://www.pharmavoice.com/news/layoffs-biopharma-2026-drug-pharma/810386/

[22] GEN, Nov 2025. $230B in blockbuster sales facing LOE by 2030. https://www.genengnews.com/topics/drug-discovery/top-20-drugs-heading-for-the-patent-cliff-2026-2029/

[23] Global Pricing Innovations. $400B+ branded revenue at risk through 2033. https://globalpricing.com/patent-cliff-in-pharma-navigating-disruption-and-creating-opportunity/

[24] GEN, Nov 2025. Januvia $2.255B, Xeljanz $1.618B, Janumet $1.433B. https://www.genengnews.com/topics/drug-discovery/top-20-drugs-heading-for-the-patent-cliff-2026-2029/

[25] BioSpace, Feb 2025. Keytruda $29B cliff 2028; Eliquis $13B 2027-2029. https://www.biospace.com/business/5-pharma-powerhouses-facing-massive-patent-cliffs-and-what-theyre-doing-about-it

[26] BioSpace, Feb 2025. Novartis: Jakafi 2026, Cosentyx 2029. https://www.biospace.com/business/5-pharma-powerhouses-facing-massive-patent-cliffs-and-what-theyre-doing-about-it

[27] Foley & Lardner, Sep 2025. Goldman Sachs: $3.9T M&A deal flow. https://www.foley.com/insights/publications/2025/09/patent-cliff-ma-activity-for-companies-right-now/

[28] Deloitte 2026. Pharma M&A $91.9B in Q1-Q3 2025 vs $61.7B full 2024. https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/health-care/life-sciences-and-health-care-industry-outlooks/2026-life-sciences-executive-outlook.html

[29] Deloitte 2026. 41% cited gen AI; 30% cited agentic AI. https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/health-care/life-sciences-and-health-care-industry-outlooks/2026-life-sciences-executive-outlook.html

[30] NES Fircroft, 2026. McKinsey: 75-85% pharma workflows, 25-40% capacity freed. https://www.nesfircroft.com/resources/blog/whats-next-for-the-life-sciences-sector-top-trends-in-2026/

[31] PharmaVoice, Jan 2026. EY on AI confabulations; 9% ROI. https://www.pharmavoice.com/news/layoffs-biopharma-2026-drug-pharma/810386/

[32] PharmExec, Feb 2026. FDA AI platform hallucinations. https://www.pharmexec.com/view/everything-know-layoffs-2025

[33] PharmiWeb, 2026. Translator profiles hardest to hire. https://www.pharmiweb.jobs/article/life-science-hiring-trends-and-challenges-heading-into-2026

[34] EPM Scientific / PharmiWeb, 2026. Hybrid profiles highest demand. https://www.pharmiweb.jobs/article/life-science-hiring-trends-and-challenges-heading-into-2026

[35] BioSpace 2026. 100% of 500-999 employee companies actively recruiting. https://www.biospace.com/job-trends/hiring-plans-show-promise-for-biopharma-job-seekers-biospace-report

[36] BioSpace, Feb 2026. 4.2 apps/posting Jan 2026 vs 3.6 Jan 2025. https://www.biospace.com/job-trends/hiring-outlook-january-brings-year-over-year-layoff-decline

[37] Lingoda, 2026. German employers value stability, language, digital literacy. https://www.lingoda.com/blog/en/expats-germany-job-market-guide-2026/

[38] BioSpace, Feb 2026. Hiring slower and more methodical in 2026. https://www.biospace.com/job-trends/7-key-insights-into-the-2026-job-market-and-hiring-landscape

[39] Deloitte DE, 2026. 90% European executives positive. https://www.deloitte.com/de/de/Industries/life-sciences-health-care/global-life-sciences-outlook.html

[40] NES Fircroft, 2026. CGT investment $15.2B in 2025, +30% vs 2023. https://www.nesfircroft.com/resources/blog/whats-next-for-the-life-sciences-sector-top-trends-in-2026/

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